DIAC attends International Higher Education Conference
Yesterday I attended the International Higher Education Conference in 
Melbourne. It was a great opportunity to listen to some interesting presentations and hear the views of the industry and their thoughts about the Knight Review of the Student Visa Program. This blog was mentioned at the conference so I hope some of the attendees stop by and have a look.
Peter Speldewinde, who has posted on this blog before, spoke at the conference. His presentation topic was ‘the role of DIAC in assessment and monitoring standards in the new era’. The new era refers to how international education will operate in a post-Knight Review environment where education providers and key stakeholders work closely, in a partnership with government. Peter’s presentation gave an interesting perspective to the group, as it provided context about how the recent reforms to skilled migration support a sustainable international education sector.
Before I touch on the key points Peter raised, I’ll provide you with a brief background. The international education sector experienced unsustainable growth in the 2008-09 period. Growth in parts of the sector brought major issues around quality in some parts of the sector and high levels of fraud in the student visa program. Following this period, a number of key changes to both the student visa and migration programs were necessary to maintain the integrity of these programs.
During his presentation Peter explained the impact of this growth, which I’ll paraphrase here.
While there had been an increase in the number of students coming to Australia, the majority of these international students were staying in Australia, reaching a point where close to four times as many people were arriving on a temporary student visa than were departing.
This had an impact on Net Overseas Migration (NOM) – which is the difference between inflows and outflows of long-term residents. This rapid acceleration of visas granted to students with no intention of returning home not only put pressure on the department to maintain the integrity of the student visa program, this rapid growth led to questions about credibility in our international education sector.
The reforms announced by the Australian Government on 8 February 2010 and the subsequent introduction of the Skilled Occupation List (SOL) have resulted in a critical shift towards a labour market demand-driven program. They have effectively decoupled the international education and migration programs, breaking a link that had led to negative outcomes for both international education and the skilled migration program.
The interesting trend Peter discussed was the immediate effect this reform package has made in contributing to a decline in NOM, which has now almost halved from its peak of more than 315 000.
The purpose of the Knight Review was to examine how the student visa program could best support Australia’s international education sector while at the same time preserving the integrity of Australia’s migration program. The changes that are occurring as a result of the Knight Review should ensure the student program remains broadly NOM neutral, as we expect to see genuine students coming to Australia, with the view to complete their courses and then return home – unless they have been sponsored by an Australian employer or have been offered a place in the Australian independent skilled migration program.
Skilled Migration and Net Overseas Migration
Here at Labour Market Branch, we’ve noticed there has been some discussion on Net Overseas Migration (NOM) today. As such, we have asked our resident NOM guru for a short piece outlining this issue. Laze is acting Assistant Secretary, Migration Planning and Strategies Branch, Department of Immigration and Citizenship. Below he takes us through his understanding of migration trends and forecasts.
‘Net Overseas Migration – it’s about the quality’
The Australian Bureau of Statistics recently announced that Net Overseas Migration (NOM) for the year ending 31 December 2010 was 171 100 persons. This was almost half the peak NOM recorded in December 2008 of 315 700 people.
The ABS data are in line with already published Department of Immigration and Citizenship forecasts of NOM, see: The Outlook for Net Overseas Migration – May 2011.
This is a sizeable drop and brings NOM back to more sustainable levels. The decline in NOM is largely due to the government’s reforms, introduced from December 2007, to sharpen the focus of the skilled migration program on high value occupations and end potential abuse of student visas. In addition, the impact of the global financial crisis and the relatively high Australian dollar has contributed to the decline in NOM.
As the economy continues its expected recovery over coming years, there is scope to increase permanent skilled migrant places (as announced in the 2011-12 Budget). In addition, temporary skilled 457 visas (which are uncapped and employer sponsored) will be free to increase and meet labour and skills needs.
In this way the government achieved two seemingly inconsistent objectives – addressing labour market and skill pressures and reducing the impact of immigration on population growth.
NOM trends and forecasts
Based on trends in visa applications and grants, the department is forecasting NOM for the year ending June 2011 of around 160 000 persons. Beyond June 2011, NOM should stabilise at around 180 000 persons each year. These forecasts take into account changes in the Migration and Humanitarian Programs announced as part of the 2011-12 Budget.
Most of the decline in NOM is due fewer temporary migrants with limited work rights; and not skilled migrants with much broader work rights. As a result, the share of NOM has shifted to permanent and temporary skilled workers.
The important points to take from this are;
- The skilled component of NOM – permanent skill stream visas and Temporary Business subclass 457 visas – is projected to increase its share of NOM from around 25 per cent in 2009 to 43 per cent by 2014.
- On the other hand, temporary migrants with limited work rights – consisting of international students and working holiday makers – are expected to fall from their peak of 47 per cent in 2009 to 21 per cent by 2014.
As you can see from the graph above, the proportion of skilled migrants with full work rights is increasing over time from 2008-09.
Quality matters
So while migration levels have dropped, the number of skilled migrants is on the rise.
The make-up of our migration intake matters. Migrants have different labour market outcomes depending on their visa category, skill level, and even depending on whether they are located in or outside Australia, see: Migrant Economic Outcomes and Contributions – April 2011.
This short piece notes that skilled, and especially employer sponsored migrants (such as those under the Employer Nomination Scheme and the 457 program), perform best in terms of low unemployment rates, high participation rates and high incomes. They also make a substantial net positive contribution to Australia’s budget.
